Will Rouhani alter Iran’s Syria policy?
Editor’s note: Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is an author, award-winning scholar, Middle East expert and U.S. foreign policy specialist. He is the president of the International American Council and serves on the board of Harvard International Review and Harvard International Relations Council. Follow him on Twitter.
(CNN) — At the outset of his term, the new president of Iran, Hassan Rouhani, will confront a thicket of national and international challenges.
Rouhani’s presidential term starts at a particularly challenging time; the Islamic Republic of Iran is facing an unprecedented level of regional and international isolation. One of the most crucial foreign policy objectives which will take precedence in Rouhani’s agenda is the Syrian conflict, which has now entered its third year.
The election result raises vital questions regarding whether Iran’s foreign policy towards Assad’s sect-based and police regime will be altered or whether Iranian-Syrian alliance will evolve into a new phase. Will the presidency of the centrist Rouhani influence Iran’s diplomatic ties with Damascus and its unconditional support for Assad? Will Tehran change its political, military, intelligence and advisory assistance to Syria’s state apparatuses, army, security forces, and Mukhabart?

READ: Rouhani wins Iran election
While there is a significant amount of high expectations and enthusiasm among some Western political leaders and scholars that the election of the centrist Rouhani might influence Iran’s support of Assad, it is crucial to be realistic about Iran’s centrist and moderate camp’s ideology, the power of the presidential office, Iran’s political structure, and Tehran’s foreign policy objectives.
First of all, it is necessary to note that the Iranian centrists and moderates’ political spectrum analyze Syria from the realms of balance of power as well as from a religious and geopolitical paradigm rather than from a human rights one.
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Iran’s new president
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Impact of sanctions on Iranians
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Female voters hopeful as Iran votes
Although Rouhani argues for constructive interactions with other countries and although he supports applying a softer political tone — as opposed to the combative, controversial and provocative language that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or other hardliners utilize — when dealing with the international community andregional state actors in regards to Syria, Rouhani has not called for an overall sweeping shift in Iran’s foreign policy. For instance, Rouhani has neither asked Assad to step down from power nor pressed to halt the Islamic Republic of Iran’s military, intelligence, financial, and advisory support to Damascus.
From the perspective of the centrists, including Rouhani, withdrawing support to Damascus equates to undermining Tehran’s geopolitical leverage and balance of power in the region, which ultimately endangers their own power. This becomes particularly more significant to the Iranian leaders who argue that they are surrounded by what they perceive as existential and strategic enemies; the United States’ military bases, for instance, are located throughout Iran’s borders and in the Gulf Arab states (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, etc).
More fundamentally, because of the role the Supreme Leader plays in Iran’s foreign policy objectives, it would be unrealistic to argue that Rouhani would alter Iran’s current political status quo towards Assad’s regime. Rouhani does not completely control the country’s foreign relations with Syria; Iran’s policy towards Damascus is closely guided by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the high generals of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Etela’at — Iran’s intelligence. However, Rouhani does have the ability to set the tone in regional and international circles for the Supreme Leader. In addition, the Supreme Leader has been very clear about his political stance on Syria, stating that Assad’s regime is targeted by Israeli and U.S.-backed groups, foreign conspirators and terrorists.
Lastly, religiously and ideologically speaking, one of the major pillars of Iran’s foreign policy has been that it has proclaimed itself as the safe-guarder of Islamic — particularly Shiite — values. The Alawite sect-based state of Syria serves as a crucial instrument for advancing, empowering, and achieving this ideological foreign policy objective.
Iran under Rouhani’s presidency is unlikely to change the current status quo, push for regime change in Syria, ask Assad to step aside as many Western and Arab Gulf states did, or halt any political, military, intelligence and advisory assistance to Assad’s ruling Alawite and socialist Bath party, due to the belief that they will be ideologically and religiously weakening their own regional influence and foreign policy leverage.
If the Alawites lose power, the next government would likely be constituted from the current oppositional groups and the Sunni majority in Syria, who comprise roughly 74% of the population. As in Egypt and Tunisia, where the Islamic Sunni parties were the ones who won the elections, in Damascus, the Sunni oppositional groups are more likely to win most of the parliamentary seats in the situation of a new government forming after Assad. This will be regarded as a considerable shift in regional and international balance of power against Iran and in favor of the Arab Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia.
Considering the aforementioned factors: the president’s limited control over directing foreign policy compared to the Supreme Leader’s more powerful role, the centrist and moderate ideologies, as well as the geopolitical, and ideological elements surrounding the issue , it is more likely that Iran will continue implementing its current strategies towards Syria to preserve Iran’s regional and international balance of power, its political and economic national interests, and the survival of the ruling clerics.
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he opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Majid Rafizadeh.
Article source: http://edition.cnn.com/2013/06/16/opinion/iran-rouhani-syria-rafizadeh/index.html?eref=edition
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Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is a popular but polarizing figure who has dominated Russian politics for more than a decade. Click through to see some highlights of his career.
Putin serves as the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee of the City Council in St. Petersburg from 1991 to 1994. Before becoming involved in politics, he served in the KGB, a Soviet-era spy agency, as an intelligence officer.
Russian President Boris Yeltsin, right, shakes hands with Putin during a farewell ceremony at the Kremlin in Moscow on December 31, 1999. Putin rose quickly through the political ranks, becoming the second democratically elected president of the Russian Federation in 2000.
President-elect Putin watches the tactical exercises of Russia’s Northern Fleet in the Barentsevo Sea on April 6, 2000. He has been at the helm during a decade of Russian economic growth fueled by natural resources of gas and oil.
A Russian cadet snaps a picture with Putin in Moscow’s Red Square on May 9, 2007, during an annual celebration of the end of World War II. Putin has pushed to modernize Russia’s military.
Putin attends an inauguration ceremony for president-elect Dmitry Medvedev at Moscow’s Kremlin on May 7, 2008. Putin was constitutionally obliged to stand down as president but stayed close to power, becoming prime minister.
Putin vacations outside the town of Kyzyl in Southern Siberia in 2009. Over the years he has earned a reputation as a “strongman,” declaring a crackdown on Chechen militants a priority in his first presidential term.
President Barack Obama meets Prime Minister Putin at his home in Novo Ogaryovo, near Moscow, on July 7, 2009. Putin said Russia was pinning its hopes on Obama to revive ties with the United States.
A worker takes down a giant elections poster bearing a portrait of Putin on October 13, 2009, in Moscow. Putin’s party tightened its grip on Russian politics with a sweeping victory in local elections, officials said, as the opposition alleged widespread fraud.
Russian President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin ski together in Krasnaya Polyana, near the Black Sea resort of Sochi in southern Russia, on January 3, 2010.
Putin takes part in a judo training session at a sports complex in St. Petersburg, on December 22, 2010. The Russian leader holds a black belt in judo.
Putin receives a medical consultation during his visit to the Smolensk Regional Hospital on August 25, 2011. Putin said he hurt his shoulder during morning judo practice.
Putin speaks to supporters at a Moscow rally on February 23, 2012. He won the presidential election in March, with just under 65% of the vote. Former President Medvedev became his prime minister.
A topless protester shouts at Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, center, during their visit to the Hanover Industrial Fair in central Germany on April 8, 2013. Human rights groups say civil liberties and democratic freedoms have suffered during Putin’s rule.
Putin addresses the media during his visit to Hanover on April 8, 2013.
Putin and his wife, Lyudmila, ended their nearly 30-year marriage, the state-run news agency reported on June 6.


































Some did it for the money, some did it for idealism, others didn’t do it at all. Former intelligence contractor Edward Snowden revealed himself Monday as the leaker of details of U.S. government surveillance programs to The Guardian. The U.S. has seen a number of high profile leak scandals including the Pentagon Papers during the administration of President Richard Nixon. Click through to see more high-profile intelligence leaking cases.
Military analyst Daniel Ellsberg leaked the 7,000-page Pentagon Papers in 1971. The top-secret documents revealed that senior American leaders, including three presidents, knew the Vietnam War was an unwinnable, tragic quagmire. Further, they showed that the government had lied to Congress and the public about the progress of the war. Ellsberg surrendered to authorities and was charged as a spy. During his trial, the court learned that President Richard Nixon’s administration had embarked on a campaign to discredit Ellsberg, illegally wiretapping him and breaking into his psychiatrist’s office. All charges against him were dropped. Since then he has lived a relatively quiet life as a respected author and lecturer.
Jonathan Pollard is a divisive figure in U.S.-Israel relations. The former U.S. Navy intelligence analyst was caught spying for Israel in 1985 and was sentenced in 1987 to life imprisonment. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly called for President Barack Obama to release Pollard after Pollard’s wife appealed to Netanyahu.
Pfc. Bradley Manning is an Army intelligence specialist who is charged with passing along classified material to WikiLeaks, a group that facilitates anonymous leaking of secret information. Manning pleaded guilty to 10 of the 22 charges against him and could face 20 years in prison. But he pleaded not guilty to the most serious charge, aiding U.S. enemies, which carries a potential life sentence.
Wen Ho Lee was a scientist at the Los Alamos Laboratory in New Mexico who was charged with 59 counts of downloading classified information onto computer tapes and passing it to China. Lee eventually agreed to plead guilty to a since count of mishandling classified information after prosecutors deemed their case to be too weak. He was released after nine months in solitary confinement. Lee later received a $1.6 million in separate settlements with the government and five news agencies after he sued them, accusing the government of leaking damaging information about him to the media.
Members of the Bush administration were accused retaliating against Valerie Plame, pictured, by blowing her cover in 2003 as a U.S. intelligence operative, after her husband, former Ambassador Joe Wilson, wrote a series of New York Times op-eds questioning the basis of certain facts the administration used to make the argument to go to war in Iraq.
In 2007, Lewis “Scooter” Libby, Vice President Dick Cheney’s former chief of staff, was convicted on charges related to the leak of the identity of CIA operative Valerie Plame. Libby was convicted of obstruction of justice and perjury in connection with the case. His 30-month sentence was commuted by President George W. Bush. Cheney told a special prosecutor in 2004 that he had no idea who leaked the information.
Aldrich Ames, a 31-year CIA employee, pleaded guilty to espionage charges in 1994 and was sentenced to life in prison. Ames was a CIA case worker who specialized in Soviet intelligence services and had been passing classified information to the KGB since 1985. U.S. intelligence officials believe that information passed along by Ames led to the arrest and execution of Russian officials they had recruited to spy for them.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is a popular but polarizing figure who has dominated Russian politics for more than a decade. Click through to see some highlights of his career.
Putin serves as the chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee of the City Council in St. Petersburg from 1991 to 1994. Before becoming involved in politics, he served in the KGB, a Soviet-era spy agency, as an intelligence officer.
Russian President Boris Yeltsin, right, shakes hands with Putin during a farewell ceremony at the Kremlin in Moscow on December 31, 1999. Putin rose quickly through the political ranks, becoming the second democratically elected president of the Russian Federation in 2000.
President-elect Putin watches the tactical exercises of Russia’s Northern Fleet in the Barentsevo Sea on April 6, 2000. He has been at the helm during a decade of Russian economic growth fueled by natural resources of gas and oil.
A Russian cadet snaps a picture with Putin in Moscow’s Red Square on May 9, 2007, during an annual celebration of the end of World War II. Putin has pushed to modernize Russia’s military.
Putin attends an inauguration ceremony for president-elect Dmitry Medvedev at Moscow’s Kremlin on May 7, 2008. Putin was constitutionally obliged to stand down as president but stayed close to power, becoming prime minister.
Putin vacations outside the town of Kyzyl in Southern Siberia in 2009. Over the years he has earned a reputation as a “strongman,” declaring a crackdown on Chechen militants a priority in his first presidential term.
President Barack Obama meets Prime Minister Putin at his home in Novo Ogaryovo, near Moscow, on July 7, 2009. Putin said Russia was pinning its hopes on Obama to revive ties with the United States.
A worker takes down a giant elections poster bearing a portrait of Putin on October 13, 2009, in Moscow. Putin’s party tightened its grip on Russian politics with a sweeping victory in local elections, officials said, as the opposition alleged widespread fraud.
Russian President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin ski together in Krasnaya Polyana, near the Black Sea resort of Sochi in southern Russia, on January 3, 2010.
Putin takes part in a judo training session at a sports complex in St. Petersburg, on December 22, 2010. The Russian leader holds a black belt in judo.
Putin receives a medical consultation during his visit to the Smolensk Regional Hospital on August 25, 2011. Putin said he hurt his shoulder during morning judo practice.
Putin speaks to supporters at a Moscow rally on February 23, 2012. He won the presidential election in March, with just under 65% of the vote. Former President Medvedev became his prime minister.
A topless protester shouts at Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, center, during their visit to the Hanover Industrial Fair in central Germany on April 8, 2013. Human rights groups say civil liberties and democratic freedoms have suffered during Putin’s rule.
Putin addresses the media during his visit to Hanover on April 8, 2013.
Putin and his wife, Lyudmila, ended their nearly 30-year marriage, the state-run news agency reported on June 6.
















Former intelligence worker Edward Snowden, 29, revealed himself as the source of documents outlining a massive effort by the NSA to track cell phone calls and monitor the e-mail and Internet traffic of virtually all Americans. He says he just wanted the public to know what the government was doing. “Even if you’re not doing anything wrong, you’re being watched and recorded,” he said. While he has not been charged, the FBI is conducting an investigation into the leaks.
Military analyst Daniel Ellsberg leaked the 7,000-page Pentagon Papers in 1971. The top-secret documents revealed that senior American leaders, including three presidents, knew the Vietnam War was an unwinnable, tragic quagmire. Further, they showed that the government had lied to Congress and the public about the progress of the war. Ellsberg surrendered to authorities and was charged as a spy. During his trial, the court learned that President Richard Nixon’s administration had embarked on a campaign to discredit Ellsberg, illegally wiretapping him and breaking into his psychiatrist’s office. All charges against him were dropped. Since then he has lived a relatively quiet life as a respected author and lecturer.
Starting in 1932, the U.S. Public Health Service studied untreated syphilis in black men who thought they were getting free health care. The patients weren’t told of their affliction or sufficiently treated. Peter Buxtun, who worked for the Public Health Service, relayed information about the Tuskegee syphilis experiment to a reporter in 1972, which halted the 40-year study. His testimony at congressional hearings led to an overhaul of the Health, Education and Welfare rules concerning work with human subjects. A class-action lawsuit was settled out-of-court for $10 million, with the U.S. government promising free medical care to survivors and their families. Here, participants talk with a study coordinator.
In 2005, retired deputy FBI director Mark Felt revealed himself to be the whistle-blower “Deep Throat” in the Watergate scandal. He anonymously assisted Washington Post reporters Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward with many of their stories about the Nixon administration’s cover-up after the June 1972 break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters. The stories sparked a congressional investigation that eventually led to President Nixon’s resignation in 1974. The Post won a Pulitzer Prize for its coverage. Felt was convicted on unrelated conspiracy charges in 1980 and eventually pardoned by President Ronald Reagan before slipping into obscurity for the next quarter-century. He died in 2008 at age 95.
Mordechai Vanunu, who worked as a technician at Israel’s nuclear research facility, leaked information to a British newspaper and led nuclear arms analysts to conclude that Israel possessed a stockpile of nuclear weapons. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its weapons program. An Israeli court convicted Vanunu in 1986 after Israeli intelligence agents captured him in Italy. He was sentenced to 18 years in prison. Since his release in 2004, he has been arrested on a number of occasions for violating terms of his parole.
President Ronald Reagan addresses the media in 1987, months after the disclosure of the Iran-Contra affair. A secret operation carried out by an American military officer used proceeds from weapons sales to Iran to fund the anti-communist Contras in Nicaragua and attempted to secure the release of U.S. hostages held by Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. Mehdi Hashemi, an officer of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, leaked evidence of the deal to a Lebanese newspaper in 1986. Reagan’s closest aides maintain he did not fully know, and only reluctantly came to accept, the circumstances of the operation.
Tobacco industry executive Jeffrey Wigand issued a memo to his company in 1992 about his concerns regarding tobacco additives. He was fired in March 1993 and subsequently contacted by “60 Minutes” and persuaded to tell his story on CBS. He claimed that Brown Williamson knowingly used additives that were carcinogenic and addictive and spent millions covering it up. He also testified in a landmark case in Mississippi that resulted in a $246 billion settlement from the tobacco industry. Wigand has received public recognition for his actions and continues to crusade against Big Tobacco. He was portrayed by Russell Crowe in the 1999 film “The Insider.”
For 10 years, Frederic Whitehurst complained mostly in vain about practices at the FBI’s world-renowned crime lab, where he worked. His efforts eventually led to a 1997 investigation that found lab agents produced inaccurate and scientifically flawed testimony in major cases, including the Oklahoma City and World Trade Center bombings. The Justice Department recommended major reforms but also criticized Whitehurst for “overstated and incendiary” allegations. He also faced disciplinary action for refusing to cooperate with an investigation into how some of his allegations were leaked to a magazine. After a yearlong paid suspension he left the bureau in 1998 with a settlement worth more than $1.16 million.
FBI whistle-blower Coleen Rowley accused the bureau of hindering efforts to investigate a suspected terrorist that could have disrupted plans for the September 11, 2001, terror attacks. In 2002 she fired off a 13-page letter to FBI Director Robert Mueller and flew to Washington to hand-deliver copies to two members of the Senate Intelligence Committee and meet with committee staffers. The letter accused the bureau of deliberately undermining requests to look into Zacarias Moussaoui, the only person convicted in the United States of playing a role in the attacks. She testified in front of Congress and the 9/11 Commission about the FBI’s mishandling of information. Rowley was selected as one of Time magazine’s People of the Year in 2002, along with whistle-blowers Sherron Watkins of Enron and Cynthia Cooper of WorldCom.
Sherron Watkins, a former vice president at Enron, sent an anonymous letter to founder Kenneth Lay in 2001 warning him the company had accounting irregularities. The memo eventually reached the public and she later testified before Congress about her concerns and the company’s wrongdoings. More than 4,000 Enron employees lost their jobs, and many also lost their life savings, when the energy giant declared bankruptcy in 2001. Investors lost billions of dollars. An investigation in 2002 found that Enron executives reaped millions of dollars from off-the-books partnerships and violated basic rules of accounting and ethics. Many were sentenced to prison for their roles in the Enron scandal.
Cynthia Cooper and her team of auditors uncovered massive fraud at WorldCom in 2002. They found that the long-distance telephone provider had used $3.8 billion in questionable accounting entries to inflate earnings over the past five quarters. By the end of 2003, the total fraud was estimated to be $11 billion. The company filed for bankruptcy protection and five executives ended up in prison. Cooper started her own consulting firm and told her story in the book “Extraordinary Circumstances: The Journey of a Corporate Whistleblower.”
In 2003, federal air marshal Robert MacLean anonymously tipped off an MSNBC reporter that because of budget concerns, the TSA was temporarily suspending missions that would require marshals to stay in hotels just days after they were briefed about a new “potential plot” to hijack U.S. airliners. The news caused an immediate uproar on Capitol Hill and the TSA retreated, withdrawing the scheduling cuts before they went into effect. MacLean was later investigated and fired for the unauthorized disclosure of “sensitive security information.”
Joe Darby is the whistle-blower behind the Abu Ghraib prison abuse scandal in Iraq. He says he asked Army Reserve Spc. Charles Graner Jr. for photos from their travels so he could share them with family. Instead, he was given photos of prisoner abuse. Darby eventually alerted the U.S. military command, triggering an investigation and global outrage when the scandal came to light in 2004. Graner was sentenced to 10 years in prison for his part in the abuse. He was released in 2011 after serving 6½ years of his sentence. The military and members of Darby’s own family ostracized him, calling him a traitor. Eventually he and his wife had to enter protective custody.
The New York Times reported in 2005 that in the months after the September 11, 2001, attacks, President George W. Bush authorized the U.S. National Security Agency to eavesdrop without a court warrant on people in the United States, including American citizens, suspected of communicating with al Qaeda members overseas. The Bush administration staunchly defended the controversial surveillance program. Russ Tice, an NSA insider, came forward as one of the anonymous sources used by the Times. He said he was concerned about alleged abuses and a lack of oversight. Here, President Bush participates in a conversation about the Patriot Act in Buffalo, New York, in April 2004.
Army Pfc. Bradley Manning is accused in the largest leak of classified documents in U.S. history. His court-martial began on June 3. He has pleaded guilty to 10 of 22 charges against him and could face up to two decades in jail. He has pleaded not guilty to the most serious charge – that of aiding U.S. enemies, which carries the potential for a life sentence. At a February proceeding, Manning read a statement detailing why and how he sent classified material in 2010 to WikiLeaks, a group that facilitates the anonymous leaking of secret information.

















Some did it for the money, some did it for idealism, others didn’t do it at all. Former intelligence contractor Edward Snowden revealed himself Monday as the leaker of details of U.S. government surveillance programs to The Guardian. The U.S. has seen a number of high profile leak scandals including the Pentagon Papers during the administration of President Richard Nixon. Click through to see more high-profile intelligence leaking cases.
Jonathan Pollard is a divisive figure in U.S.-Israel relations. The former U.S. Navy intelligence analyst was caught spying for Israel in 1985 and was sentenced in 1987 to life imprisonment. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly called for President Barack Obama to release Pollard after Pollard’s wife appealed to Netanyahu.
Wen Ho Lee was a scientist at the Los Alamos Laboratory in New Mexico who was charged with 59 counts of downloading classified information onto computer tapes and passing it to China. Lee eventually agreed to plead guilty to a since count of mishandling classified information after prosecutors deemed their case to be too weak. He was released after nine months in solitary confinement. Lee later received a $1.6 million in separate settlements with the government and five news agencies after he sued them, accusing the government of leaking damaging information about him to the media.
Members of the Bush administration were accused retaliating against Valerie Plame, pictured, by blowing her cover in 2003 as a U.S. intelligence operative, after her husband, former Ambassador Joe Wilson, wrote a series of New York Times op-eds questioning the basis of certain facts the administration used to make the argument to go to war in Iraq.
In 2007, Lewis “Scooter” Libby, Vice President Dick Cheney’s former chief of staff, was convicted on charges related to the leak of the identity of CIA operative Valerie Plame. Libby was convicted of obstruction of justice and perjury in connection with the case. His 30-month sentence was commuted by President George W. Bush. Cheney told a special prosecutor in 2004 that he had no idea who leaked the information.
Aldrich Ames, a 31-year CIA employee, pleaded guilty to espionage charges in 1994 and was sentenced to life in prison. Ames was a CIA case worker who specialized in Soviet intelligence services and had been passing classified information to the KGB since 1985. U.S. intelligence officials believe that information passed along by Ames led to the arrest and execution of Russian officials they had recruited to spy for them.
Robert Hanssen pleaded guilty to espionage charges in 2001 in return for the government not seeking the death penalty. Hanssen began spying for the Soviet Union in 1979, three years after going to work for the FBI and prosecutors said he collected $1.4 million for the information he turned over to the Cold War enemy. In 1981, Hanssen’s wife caught him with classified documents and convinced him to stop spying, but he started passing secrets to the Soviets again four years later. In 1991, he broke off relations with the KGB, but resumed his espionage career in 1999, this time with the Russian Intelligence Service. He was arrested after making a drop in a Virginia park in 2001.
John Walker ran a father and son spy ring, passing classified material to the Soviet Union from 1967 to 1985. Walker was a Navy communication specialist with financial difficulties when he walked into the Soviet Embassy and sold a piece of cyphering equipment. Navy and Defense officials said that Walker enabled the Soviet Union to unscramble military communications and pinpoint the location of U.S. submarines at all times. As part of his plea deal, prosecutors promised leniency for Walker’s son Michael Walker, a former Navy seaman.









